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HDI Market Report & Forecast

Affordability Factor Boosts in South While Western Growth Falls

By November 14, 2016 No Comments

As housing price performance in the West begins to falter, a year of impressive gains in the South signal a new dynamic for the national spread in regional growth.

  • Regionally, the South and Midwest have each experienced a quarterly price growth increase of 0.1% since last month, bringing quarter-over-quarter growth rates to 0.9% and 1.0% respectively. While the West is still outpacing the rest of the nation at 1.1% QoQ growth, this is actually a decrease from last month’s figures, signaling a potential loss in momentum for the region. These three regions are now all within a 0.1% quarterly growth margin of each other – a first since Q4 2011, which coincidentally was the last time the West was not leading regional quarterly growth. Outside of these regions, quarterly growth in the Northeast remains steady at 0.3%, no change from last month.
  • Nationally, quarterly home price growth has increased slightly, an uptick of 0.1% from 0.8% to 0.9%. Annual growth figures are also on the rise reaching 5.5%, a 0.3% improvement over annual growth rates from this time last year.
  • Additionally, nationwide distressed saturation rates have fallen 0.7% from an average of 13.9% to 13.2% in just the last month, with the Western average decreasing to a current national low of just 9.2%.
  • Southern markets continue to dominate our list of top performing markets in the nation this month, with 8 of the 15 top performing metros belonging to the region. The Memphis, TN metropolitan area takes the top spot on the growth charts for November, reporting an impressive 2.6% price increase over the last quarter. Elsewhere in the nation, quarterly growth appears to be holding relatively steady or even slowing down as fall sales data begins to come in.
  • Market performance in the South has been relatively impressive for 2016, as the median home price in the region has risen 5.7% since this time last year. Even as markets in the region continue to post impressive gains, the median price per square foot in top performing southern markets remains well under the national benchmark – for the region as a whole, an average price per square foot of $106 is almost $30 less than the national average at $135.

“As the Western region’s long standing housing price growth dominance is beginning to fade, the South is the clear frontrunner as we begin to look forward to 2017 for top performing markets,” states Alex Villacorta, Ph.D., Vice President of Research and Analytics at Clear Capital. “The region hosts several of the nation’s top-performing and most talked about metropolitan markets like Dallas, Nashville, Miami, and others. Combined with its relatively low cost of living, the region appears to be gaining popularity among home buyers, signaling a new opportunity for investors and traditional homebuyers alike as affordability remains an issue in many other markets, namely those in the West and Northeastern regions.” 


Graph 1. Price per square foot in Southern Metros. Data through October 2016. Source: Clear Capital®


 National and Regional Markets
Market Qtr/Qtr% +/- Yr/Yr DistressedSaturation
National 0.9% 5.5% 13.2%
West 1.1% 8.0% 9.2%
Northeast 0.3% 1.9% 14.4%
South 1.0% 6.1% 14.8%
Midwest 0.9% 5.0% 15.5%

Chart 1. National and Regional distressed saturation and changes in home prices from last quarter and last year. Data through October 2016. Source: Clear Capital®


 Highest Performing Major Metro Markets
Rank Metropolitan Statistical Area Qtr/Qtr% +/- Yr/Yr Distressed
1 Memphis, TN 2.6% 3.6% 19.0%
2 Tampa, FL — St. Petersburg, FL — Clearwater, FL 1.9% 14.5% 17.7%
3 Portland, OR — Vancouver, WA — Beaverton, OR 1.8% 10.9% 5.9%
4 San Antonio, TX 1.7% 8.9% 0.7%
5 Orlando, FL 1.7% 11.7% 15.9%
6 Seattle, WA — Tacoma, WA — Bellevue, WA 1.6% 12.1% 6.3%
7 Dallas, TX — Fort Worth, TX — Arlington, TX 1.5% 10.8% 2.0%
8 Cleveland, OH — Elyria, OH — Mentor, OH 1.5% 9.0% 16.1%
9 Denver, CO — Aurora, CO 1.5% 10.9% 5.1%
10 Sacramento, CA — Arden, CA — Roseville, CA 1.5% 10.1% 8.0%
11 Miami, FL — Ft. Lauderdale, FL — Miami Beach, FL 1.5% 10.2% 16.2%
12 Jacksonville, FL 1.4% 9.7% 17.9%
13 Nashville, TN — Davidson, TN — Murfreesboro, TN 1.4% 9.7% 6.7%
14 Las Vegas, NV — Paradise, NV 1.4% 9.8% 15.1%
15 Detroit, MI — Warren, MI — Livonia, MI 1.3% 7.7% 14.4%

Chart 2. Highest Performing Major Metro Markets through October 2016. Source: Clear Capital®


Lowest Performing Major Metro Markets
Rank Metropolitan Statistical Area Qtr/Qtr% +/- Yr/Yr Distressed Saturation
1 Pittsburgh, PA 0.0% 2.0% 8.2%
2 Houston, TX — Baytown, TX — Sugar Land, TX 0.0% 4.2% 2.8%
3 Hartford, CT — West Hartford, CT — East Hartford, CT 0.1% 2.8% 16.1%
4 San Jose, CA — Sunnyvale, CA — Santa Clara, CA 0.1% 5.1% 3.1%
5 Virginia Beach, VA — Norfolk, VA — Newport News, VA 0.2% 1.4% 15.3%
6 New Orleans, LA — Metairie, LA — Kenner, LA 0.4% 4.9% 12.5%
7 St. Louis, MO 0.5% 4.7% 15.3%
8 Birmingham, AL — Hoover, AL 0.5% 0.8% 13.4%
9 San Francisco, CA — Oakland, CA — Fremont, CA 0.5% 5.9% 5.2%
10 Honolulu, HI 0.7% 5.3% 6.2%
11 NY, NY — No. New Jersey, NJ — Long Island, NY 0.7% 3.6% 11.3%
12 Dayton, OH 0.7% 4.1% 14.4%
13 Washington, DC — Arlington, VA — Alexandria, VA 0.7% 4.0% 11.2%
14 Rochester, NY 0.7% 2.0% 12.0%
15 Louisville, KY 0.8% 5.3% 9.7%

Chart 3. Lowest Performing Major Metro Markets through October 2016. Source: Clear Capital®


About the Clear Capital® Home Data Index (HDI) Market Report
The Clear Capital HDI Market Report provides insights into market trends and other leading indices for the real estate market at the national and local levels. A critical difference in the value of the HDI Market Report is the capability of Clear Capital to provide more timely and granular reporting than nearly any other home price index provider.

Clear Capital® HDI Methodology

  • Generates the timeliest indices in patent pending rolling quarter intervals that compare the most recent four months to the previous three months. The rolling quarters have no fixed start date and can be used to generate indices as data flows in, significantly reducing the multi-month lag time experienced with other indices.
  • Includes both fair market and institutional (real estate owned) transactions, giving equal weight to all market transactions and identifying price tiers at a market specific level. By giving equal weight to all transactions, the HDI is truly representative of each unique market.
  • Results from an address-level cascade create an index with the most granular, statistically significant market area available.
  • Provides weighted repeat sales and price-per-square-foot index models that use multiple sale types, including single-family homes, multi-family homes, and condominiums.
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