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Market Report

JUNE 2017

Jacksonville Outshines Southern Metro’s

Reno, NV – June 14, 2017

Florida metro’s, Jacksonville, Orlando, and Tampa all experienced a boost in domestic migration from 2015 to 2016, which has contributed to double-digit year-over-year home price growth, as well as declining distressed saturation rates. With this leap, Jacksonville steps up to become the fastest growing major metropolitan housing market in the country, with its quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) home price growth jumping to 2%. [Reference: Graph 1]

  • Nationally, quarter-over-quarter home price growth has slowed slightly from 0.9% to 0.8%; however, this aggregate measure disguises a growing regional divide.
  • The West region continues to pace the nation with 1.2% QoQ growth, thanks to high levels of growth in the Pacific Northwest, the Sacramento Valley, and Arizona. Of the top 15 metros, 9 are in the West region. San Jose has begun to see growth accelerate, entering the top 15 with 1.3% QoQ growth, despite a meager 3.7% growth rate since this time last year.  
  • The Northeast, despite not having any metros in the top 15 and being the only region to experience a significant increase in distressed saturation (up to 14.3% from 13.9% last month), is not far behind with 1% QoQ growth, an uptick from 0.9% since last month.
  • Despite the summer selling season beginning to heat up, growth in the South has begun to slow down, with QoQ gains of 0.6% (down from 0.8% last month). Memphis, which was the worst performing market in terms of QoQ growth last month, is showing signs of life, jumping into the top 15 with 1.5% QoQ growth (up from -0.3% last month) and 9.1% YoY growth (up from 6.7% a month ago).  Despite this impressive turnaround and the contributions of the Florida markets, the South region’s growth has been stalled by Virginia Beach, Baltimore, Houston, New Orleans, Louisville, and Birmingham, all of which have grown by less than 0.6% QoQ.
  • The Midwest remains the slowest growing region in the nation, with QoQ growth slowing from 0.6% to 0.5% last month.  Nonetheless, Chicago has begun to heat up, jumping into the top 3 in terms of QoQ growth at 1.7% (up from 1.5%).  Chicago, despite having a declining population in 2016 and 20% distressed saturation, is one of only 7 metros to achieve double-digit YoY growth. While Minneapolis has maintained its 1.3% QoQ growth from last month, Cleveland and Cincinnati have seen significant headwinds. Both of these metros had been experiencing strong QoQ growth last month at 1.2%, but have slowed considerably to 0.8% and 0.6%, respectively. In particular, Cincinnati is showing warning signs with distressed saturation increasing dramatically from 14.5% to 17.6% in the last month.

 

Data Effective Date: 05/24/2017

 

Graph 1. Domestic Migration Rates (July 2015 to July 2016) and YoY Price Changes.  Source: Clear Capital® & U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division.

 

 National and Regional Markets
Market Qtr/Qtr% +/- Yr/Yr DistressedSaturation
National 0.8% 5.9% 11.8%
West 1.2% 8.0% 8.4%
Northeast 1.0% 4.9% 14.3%
South 0.6% 5.6% 12.7%
Midwest 0.5% 5.1% 13.5%

Chart 1. National and Regional distressed saturation and changes in home prices from last quarter and last year. Data through May 2017. Source: Clear Capital®

 

 Highest Performing Major Metro Markets
Rank Metropolitan Statistical Area Qtr/Qtr% +/- Yr/Yr Distressed
Saturation
1 Jacksonville, FL 2.0% 11.6% 14.1%
2 Seattle, WA — Tacoma, WA — Bellevue, WA 1.9% 12.2% 7.3%
3 Chicago, IL — Naperville, IL — Joliet, IL 1.7% 10.4% 20.0%
4 Fresno, CA 1.7% 9.9% 11.0%
5 Honolulu, HI 1.5% 7.2% 7.0%
6 Orlando, FL 1.5% 10.5% 14.3%
7 Sacramento, CA — Arden, CA — Roseville, CA 1.5% 10.1% 8.7%
8 Phoenix, AZ — Mesa, AZ — Scottsdale, AZ 1.5% 8.3% 9.9%
9 Memphis, TN 1.5% 9.1% 17.5%
10 Portland, OR — Vancouver, WA — Beaverton, OR 1.4% 11.4% 7.1%
11 San Diego, CA — Carlsbad, CA — San Marcos, CA 1.4% 7.9% 7.0%
12 Denver, CO — Aurora, CO 1.3% 9.7% 5.8%
13 Tucson, AZ 1.3% 8.3% 10.5%
14 Minneapolis, MN — St. Paul, MN — Bloomington, WI 1.3% 8.3% 8.3%
15 San Jose, CA — Sunnyvale, CA — Santa Clara, CA 1.3% 3.7% 2.7%

Chart 2. Highest Performing Major Metro Markets through May 2017. Source: Clear Capital®

 

 Lowest Performing Major Metro Markets
Rank Metropolitan Statistical Area Qtr/Qtr% +/- Yr/Yr Distressed
Saturation
1 Milwaukee, WI — Waukesha, WI — West Allis, WI 0.1% 5.2% 16.2%
2 Virginia Beach, VA — Norfolk, VA — Newport News, VA 0.1% 1.1% 11.8%
3 Rochester, NY 0.2% 3.5% 13.9%
4 Hartford, CT — West Hartford, CT — East Hartford, CT 0.2% 1.8% 20.7%
5 Pittsburgh, PA 0.3% 1.4% 11.7%
6 Detroit, MI — Warren, MI — Livonia, MI 0.3% 7.0% 15.2%
7 Baltimore, MD — Towson, MD 0.3% 3.6% 23.2%
8 Houston, TX — Baytown, TX — Sugar Land, TX 0.3% 3.9% 1.4%
9 New Orleans, LA — Metairie, LA — Kenner, LA 0.5% 4.9% 11.1%
10 Bakersfield, CA 0.5% 5.5% 13.5%
11 Louisville, KY 0.6% 5.0% 8.7%
12 Birmingham, AL — Hoover, AL 0.6% 3.8% 13.5%
13 Cincinnati, OH — Middletown, OH 0.6% 5.7% 17.6%
14 Cleveland, OH — Elyria, OH — Mentor, OH 0.8% 7.3% 18.5%
15 Philadelphia, PA — Camden, NJ — Wilmington, DE 0.8% 5.0% 19.5%

Chart 3. Lowest Performing Major Metro Markets through May 2017. Source: Clear Capital®

 

Want More Data?
For more Clear Capital HDI data, including the Top 30 MSAs, please access the Bloomberg Professional service by typing CLCA <GO>. If you are not a current Bloomberg subscriber, you can still access the Top 30 MSAs by sending a request to:

Tiffany Callaway
Marketing Program Manager
tiffany.callaway@clearcapital.com
Phone: 530.550.2500

 

About the Clear Capital® Home Data Index (HDI) Market Report
The Clear Capital HDI Market Report provides insights into market trends and other leading indices for the real estate market at the national and local levels. A critical difference in the value of the HDI Market Report is the capability of Clear Capital to provide more timely and granular reporting than nearly any other home price index provider.

 

Clear Capital® HDI Methodology

  • Generates the timeliest indices in patent pending rolling quarter intervals that compare the most recent four months to the previous three months. The rolling quarters have no fixed start date and can be used to generate indices as data flows in, significantly reducing the multi-month lag time experienced with other indices.
  • Includes both fair market and institutional (real estate owned) transactions, giving equal weight to all market transactions and identifying price tiers at a market specific level. By giving equal weight to all transactions, the HDI is truly representative of each unique market.
  • Results from an address-level cascade create an index with the most granular, statistically significant market area available.
  • Provides weighted repeat sales and price-per-square-foot index models that use multiple sale types, including single-family homes, multi-family homes, and condominiums.

 

About Clear Capital®
Clear Capital is a nationwide provider of real estate valuations, data and analytics, quality assurance services and technology solutions. The Company’s customers include mortgage lenders, servicers, investors, GSEs, and Ratings Agencies. Clear Capital products include appraisals, broker price opinions, property condition inspections, value reconciliations, appraisal review and risk scoring, automated valuation models, home data indices, and platform solutions. The Company’s innovative technology, experienced valuation experts, and a well-trained network of more than 30,000 field experts sets a new standard for accurate, up-to-date, and well documented valuation data and assessments. Morningstar Credit Rating issued Clear Capital its highest Residential Vendor Ranking – MOR RV1. Clear Capital’s home price data can be accessed on the Bloomberg Professional service by typing CLCA <GO>.

The information contained in this report is based on sources that are deemed to be reliable; however no representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness, or fitness for any particular purpose of any information contained herein. This report is not intended as investment advice, and should not be viewed as any guarantee of value, condition, or other attribute.