Jacksonville Outshines Southern Metro’s
Reno, NV – June 14, 2017
Florida metro’s, Jacksonville, Orlando, and Tampa all experienced a boost in domestic migration from 2015 to 2016, which has contributed to double-digit year-over-year home price growth, as well as declining distressed saturation rates. With this leap, Jacksonville steps up to become the fastest growing major metropolitan housing market in the country, with its quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) home price growth jumping to 2%. [Reference: Graph 1]
- Nationally, quarter-over-quarter home price growth has slowed slightly from 0.9% to 0.8%; however, this aggregate measure disguises a growing regional divide.
- The West region continues to pace the nation with 1.2% QoQ growth, thanks to high levels of growth in the Pacific Northwest, the Sacramento Valley, and Arizona. Of the top 15 metros, 9 are in the West region. San Jose has begun to see growth accelerate, entering the top 15 with 1.3% QoQ growth, despite a meager 3.7% growth rate since this time last year.
- The Northeast, despite not having any metros in the top 15 and being the only region to experience a significant increase in distressed saturation (up to 14.3% from 13.9% last month), is not far behind with 1% QoQ growth, an uptick from 0.9% since last month.
- Despite the summer selling season beginning to heat up, growth in the South has begun to slow down, with QoQ gains of 0.6% (down from 0.8% last month). Memphis, which was the worst performing market in terms of QoQ growth last month, is showing signs of life, jumping into the top 15 with 1.5% QoQ growth (up from -0.3% last month) and 9.1% YoY growth (up from 6.7% a month ago). Despite this impressive turnaround and the contributions of the Florida markets, the South region’s growth has been stalled by Virginia Beach, Baltimore, Houston, New Orleans, Louisville, and Birmingham, all of which have grown by less than 0.6% QoQ.
- The Midwest remains the slowest growing region in the nation, with QoQ growth slowing from 0.6% to 0.5% last month. Nonetheless, Chicago has begun to heat up, jumping into the top 3 in terms of QoQ growth at 1.7% (up from 1.5%). Chicago, despite having a declining population in 2016 and 20% distressed saturation, is one of only 7 metros to achieve double-digit YoY growth. While Minneapolis has maintained its 1.3% QoQ growth from last month, Cleveland and Cincinnati have seen significant headwinds. Both of these metros had been experiencing strong QoQ growth last month at 1.2%, but have slowed considerably to 0.8% and 0.6%, respectively. In particular, Cincinnati is showing warning signs with distressed saturation increasing dramatically from 14.5% to 17.6% in the last month.
Data Effective Date: 05/24/2017
Graph 1. Domestic Migration Rates (July 2015 to July 2016) and YoY Price Changes. Source: Clear Capital® & U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division.
|National and Regional Markets|
Chart 1. National and Regional distressed saturation and changes in home prices from last quarter and last year. Data through May 2017. Source: Clear Capital®
|Highest Performing Major Metro Markets|
|Rank||Metropolitan Statistical Area||Qtr/Qtr% +/-||Yr/Yr||Distressed
|2||Seattle, WA — Tacoma, WA — Bellevue, WA||1.9%||12.2%||7.3%|
|3||Chicago, IL — Naperville, IL — Joliet, IL||1.7%||10.4%||20.0%|
|7||Sacramento, CA — Arden, CA — Roseville, CA||1.5%||10.1%||8.7%|
|8||Phoenix, AZ — Mesa, AZ — Scottsdale, AZ||1.5%||8.3%||9.9%|
|10||Portland, OR — Vancouver, WA — Beaverton, OR||1.4%||11.4%||7.1%|
|11||San Diego, CA — Carlsbad, CA — San Marcos, CA||1.4%||7.9%||7.0%|
|12||Denver, CO — Aurora, CO||1.3%||9.7%||5.8%|
|14||Minneapolis, MN — St. Paul, MN — Bloomington, WI||1.3%||8.3%||8.3%|
|15||San Jose, CA — Sunnyvale, CA — Santa Clara, CA||1.3%||3.7%||2.7%|
Chart 2. Highest Performing Major Metro Markets through May 2017. Source: Clear Capital®
|Lowest Performing Major Metro Markets|
|Rank||Metropolitan Statistical Area||Qtr/Qtr% +/-||Yr/Yr||Distressed
|1||Milwaukee, WI — Waukesha, WI — West Allis, WI||0.1%||5.2%||16.2%|
|2||Virginia Beach, VA — Norfolk, VA — Newport News, VA||0.1%||1.1%||11.8%|
|4||Hartford, CT — West Hartford, CT — East Hartford, CT||0.2%||1.8%||20.7%|
|6||Detroit, MI — Warren, MI — Livonia, MI||0.3%||7.0%||15.2%|
|7||Baltimore, MD — Towson, MD||0.3%||3.6%||23.2%|
|8||Houston, TX — Baytown, TX — Sugar Land, TX||0.3%||3.9%||1.4%|
|9||New Orleans, LA — Metairie, LA — Kenner, LA||0.5%||4.9%||11.1%|
|12||Birmingham, AL — Hoover, AL||0.6%||3.8%||13.5%|
|13||Cincinnati, OH — Middletown, OH||0.6%||5.7%||17.6%|
|14||Cleveland, OH — Elyria, OH — Mentor, OH||0.8%||7.3%||18.5%|
|15||Philadelphia, PA — Camden, NJ — Wilmington, DE||0.8%||5.0%||19.5%|
Chart 3. Lowest Performing Major Metro Markets through May 2017. Source: Clear Capital®
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