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May Home Price Trends Reveal Las Vegas Takes The Lead In The Recovery.
But a couple quarters of winning hands still leaves Vegas in the red.
TRUCKEE, Calif. – June 4, 2013 – Clear Capital (www.ClearCapital.com), the premium provider of data and solutions for real estate asset valuation and collateral risk assessment, today released its Home Data Index™ (HDI) Market Report with data through May 2013. Using a broad array of public and proprietary data sources, the HDI Market Report publishes the most granular home data and analysis earlier than nearly any other index provider in the industry.
May 2013 highlights include:
- Spring buying activity started to take marginal effect on short-term price trends as quarterly, national and regional gains saw a slight uptick over April. The West, South, Northeast and Midwest saw quarterly gains of 2.4%, 1.1%, 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively.
- Nationally, home prices saw a 1.3% quarterly gain, while yearly gains expanded to 8.2%. The yearly growth rate picked up a full 1.0 point over April’s rate of 7.2% growth. As noted in past reports, these noteworthy gains on the yearly metric can’t completely be attributed to current momentum; rather they are, in part, a result of the low price floor seen one year ago.
- Price trends remained mixed at the metro level, a reminder that price trends at the national and regional levels can tell a very different story. May’s new metro recovery leader, Las Vegas, also highlights the importance of long-term perspective when analyzing quarterly and yearly trends in markets that were hard hit during the housing crisis.
- Las Vegas yearly gains ramped up to 27.0%, surpassing the yearly gains of 25.7% in Phoenix. This is the first time since April 2012 that Phoenix has not led the top 50 major metro markets in yearly gains. While Las Vegas yearly gains continue to pick up steam, the market has a long road ahead. Current prices remain 57.1% below the peak and would need to climb another staggering 133.3% to reach peak values. It would take Las Vegas home prices nearly four years at the current annual growth rate of 27.0% to get back to 2006 levels. While this is unrealistic over the short or even mid-term horizon, it puts the current gains into context.
- Phoenix on the other hand, has seen a slight moderating pattern over the last several months, a healthy move for a market that has been very hot over the last year. This market also has a long road ahead, with prices still 45.9% below their peak.
- Further evidence of spring’s slightly positive impact: Severity of quarterly declines in the lowest performing markets subsided slightly in May, where only six out of 15 of the lowest performing markets saw declines and five of those saw less than 1.0% in losses.
- Cleveland was the exception, where quarterly losses of 4.3% fueled yearly declines of 4.0%. This market’s low price point of less than $75 PPSF and high REO saturation rate of 39.1% continue to drive volatile trends.
- Contact Brian Opsal for your May 2013 file of the Top 30 MSAs or access our data on the Bloomberg Professional service by typing CLCA <GO>.
“May home price trends confirm the recovery continues to mature,” said Dr. Alex Villacorta, vice president of research and analytics at Clear Capital. “While there’s no questioning the validity of the recovery at this point, performances at the local level remained mixed when considering strength, sustainability and relative positions to 2006 prices. For example, Las Vegas’ strong yearly gains represent a rebound from a severe correction rather than bubble-like price growth. Despite 27.0% yearly growth, this market remains 53.0% below peak levels, significantly more depressed than most markets. Even if Las Vegas could parlay 27.0% annual growth, a highly unlikely outcome, it would take nearly four years for home prices to climb back up to high-rolling 2006 levels. On the other hand, some markets like Cleveland have yet to find a foothold in the recovery. Both Las Vegas and Cleveland are great reminders that granularity in home price trends remains key.
In general, national price trends are at a relatively healthy point and the diversity in price performance at the local level is mainly a function of the severity to which a particular housing market was hit during the housing crash. In general, we expect current gains to moderate over the near term. Certainly the expectation for moderation is less flashy than home prices racing their way back to pre-crisis levels. Yet moderation provides a sense of stability that is essential for both consumers and lenders, as it allows for both parties to calibrate to the current housing landscape.”
For the complete file of the Top 30 MSA price trends for May 2013, please contact Brian Opsal.
|Highest Performing Major Metro Markets|
|Metropolitan Statistical Area||Qtr/Qtr
|1||Las Vegas, NV – Paradise, NV||4.5%||27.0%||25.3%|
|2||Sacramento, CA – Arden, CA – Roseville, CA||3.5%||21.9%||17.8%|
|3||Chicago, IL – Naperville, IL – Joliet, IL||3.2%||11.5%||31.9%|
|4||Phoenix, AZ – Mesa, AZ – Scottsdale, AZ||3.0%||25.7%||14.9%|
|5||San Jose, CA – Sunnyvale, CA – Santa Clara, CA||3.0%||22.2%||6.9%|
|6||Atlanta, GA – Sandy Springs, GA – Marietta, GA||3.0%||20.8%||31.3%|
|7||Miami, FL – Ft. Lauderdale, FL – Miami Beach, FL||2.8%||17.6%||24.1%|
|8||Los Angeles, CA – Long Beach, CA – Santa Ana, CA||2.8%||16.9%||14.6%|
|9||Riverside, CA – San Bernardino, CA – Ontario, CA||2.7%||16.0%||22.8%|
|10||Oxnard, CA – Thousand Oaks, CA – Ventura, CA||2.7%||12.6%||14.8%|
|12||San Diego, CA – Carlsbad, CA – San Marcos, CA||2.5%||15.0%||13.4%|
|13||San Francisco, CA – Oakland, CA – Fremont, CA||2.5%||21.1%||13.3%|
|Lowest Performing Major Metro Markets|
|Metropolitan Statistical Area||Qtr/Qtr
|1||Cleveland, OH – Elyria, OH – Mentor, OH||-4.3%||-4.0%||39.1%|
|2||St. Louis, MO||-0.7%||-3.1%||30.2%|
|3||Detroit, MI – Warren, MI – Livonia, MI||-0.7%||6.9%||47.8%|
|4||Birmingham, AL – Hoover, AL||-0.4%||5.1%||25.7%|
|5||Raleigh, NC – Cary, NC||-0.1%||-1.0%||15.0%|
|6||Dallas, TX – Fort Worth, TX – Arlington, TX||-0.1%||3.9%||17.6%|
|7||New Orleans, LA – Metairie, LA – Kenner, LA||0.2%||2.0%||16.7%|
|8||Charlotte, NC – Gastonia, NC – Concord, NC||0.2%||0.4%||25.8%|
|9||Nashville, TN – Davidson, TN – Murfreesboro, TN||0.2%||3.2%||19.6%|
|11||Milwaukee, WI – Waukesha, WI – West Allis, WI||0.3%||7.7%||19.2%|
|15||Baltimore, MD – Towson, MD||0.6%||4.4%||10.3%|
About the Clear Capital® Home Data Index™ (HDI) Market Report
The Clear Capital HDI Market Report provides insights into market trends and other leading indices for the real estate market at the national and local levels. A critical difference in the value of the HDI Market Report is the capability of Clear Capital to provide more timely and granular reporting than nearly any other home price index provider.
The Clear Capital HDI Market Report
- Offers the real estate industry (investors, lenders, and servicers), government agencies, and the public insight into the most recent pricing conditions, not only at the national and metropolitan level, but within local markets as well.
- Is built on the most recent information available from recorder/assessor offices, and then further enhanced by adding the company’s proprietary streaming market data for the most comprehensive geographic coverage and local insights available.
- Reflects nationwide coverage of sales transactions and aggregates this comprehensive dataset at ten different geographic levels, including hundreds of metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) and sub-ZIP code boundaries.
- Includes equally-weighted distressed bank owned sales (REOs) from around the country to give the most real world look of pricing dynamics across all sales types.
- Allows for the most current market data by providing more frequent updates with patent pending rolling quarter technology. This ensures decisions are based on the most up-to-date information available.
Clear Capital HDI Methodology
- Generates the timeliest indices in patent pending rolling quarter intervals that compare the most recent four months to the previous three months. The rolling quarters have no fixed start date and can be used to generate indices as data flows in, significantly reducing the multi-month lag time experienced with other indices.
- Includes both fair market and institutional (real estate owned) transactions, giving equal weight to all market transactions and identifying price tiers at a market specific level. By giving equal weight to all transactions, the HDI™ is truly representative of each unique market.
- Results from an address-level cascade create an index with the most granular, statistically significant market area available.
- Provides weighted repeat sales and price-per-square-foot index models that use multiple sale types, including single-family homes, multi-family homes, and condominiums.
About Clear Capital
Clear Capital (www.ClearCapital.com) is the premium provider of data and solutions for the mortgage finance industry. The Company’s products include appraisals, broker price opinions, property condition inspections, value reconciliations, automated valuation models, quality assurance services, and home data indices. Clear Capital’s combination of progressive technology, high caliber in-house staff, and a well-trained network of more than 40,000 field experts sets a new standard for accurate, up-to-date, and well documented valuation data and assessments. The Company’s customers include the largest U.S. banks, investment firms, and other financial organizations. Clear Capital’s home price data can be accessed on the Bloomberg Professional service by typing CLCA <GO>.
The information contained in this report is based on sources that are deemed to be reliable; however no representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness, or fitness for any particular purpose of any information contained herein. This report is not intended as investment advice, and should not be viewed as any guarantee of value, condition, or other attribute.
Vice President, Marketing