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Brian Opsal

Vice President, Marketing

brian.opsal@clearcapital.com

Phone: 530.550.2546

August National Yearly Price Gains of 10.2% Align with Housing Bubble Peak.

Meanwhile sub-surface trends paint a picture of future moderation rather than meltdown.

 

TRUCKEE, Calif. – September 4, 2013 – Clear Capital (www.ClearCapital.com), the premium provider of data and solutions for real estate asset valuation and collateral risk assessment, today released its Home Data Index™ (HDI) Market Report with data through August 2013. Using a broad array of public and proprietary data sources, the HDI Market Report publishes the most granular home data and analysis earlier than nearly any other index provider in the industry.

 

August 2013 highlights include:

 

  • National yearly home price growth picked up to 10.2% in August. Mid 2006, the height of the bubble was the last time double digit yearly price growth was reported. However, current yearly gains are different in many ways from the peak.
    • Considering prices remain 32.5% off their previous highs and only in line with 2002 prices, we’re not concerned about a new housing bubble.
    • Additionally, the low tier price segment of the housing market saw quarterly gains of 2.0%, the lowest since April 2012, indicating the sector that kick started the recovery is already on a path of moderation. From its peak rate of growth in April 2013, rates of growth for the low tier segment, or home sale values in the bottom 25th percentile, have fallen from 4.1% to 2.0%.
  • Regional and metro trends echoed those at the national level, where quarterly and yearly rates of home price growth mostly expanded.
    • Top performing major metro markets saw average quarterly growth of 3.4%. Annualized, the 14.3% represents a 7.7 percentage point drop over the current average yearly gains of 22.0%. This current rate of growth marks yet another sign moderation will likely unfold in the near future as the strongest markets position for a cooling.
  • Contact Brian Opsal for your August 2013 file of the Top 30 MSAs or access our data on the Bloomberg Professional service by typing CLCA GO.

 

“With the continued strengthening of home price trends in August, the need for perspective on market activity is even more important“ said Dr. Alex Villacorta, vice president of research and analytics at Clear Capital. “National yearly gains surpassed 10.0% for the first reported time since the peak of the market in mid 2006. Certainly these trends are exciting, particularly against the backdrop of the seemingly endless housing market woes following 2006. It’s been a long, hard road and it’s difficult not to celebrate double digit price growth.

 

It’s important, however, to note a few sub-surface trends that signal these gains will likely subside over the coming months. Average quarterly gains in the top performing 15 major metros signal moderation is already underway, when annualized and compared to current yearly growth.

 

Additionally, we see the spread between low price tier and top price tier rates of growth the tightest since the start of the recovery. Considering the low tier price segment of the housing market led the recovery, the cooling in this segment will likely transfer through to the broader housing market. And cyclically, we are heading out of the busy buying season and into the slower fall and winter months. That’s not to say the recovery is slated to stall, rather growth patterns are likely to return to more historical rates of growth, between 4.0% to 5.0%, rather than align with bubble-like growth.

 

At the end of the day, this is still great news for housing. Today’s housing market is not irrational or out of balance within the broader context of housing trends, but as we learned, sustaining this pace of growth is simply not healthy. Our call for moderation is the next phase of a more mature recovery.”

 

For the complete file of the Top 30 MSA price trends for August 2013, please contact Heather Shick.

 

Sept2013_Map

 

 

 Highest Performing Major Metro Markets
Qtr/Qtr Rank Metropolitan Statistical Area Qtr/Qtr % +/- Yr/Yr REO Saturation
1 San Francisco, CA – Oakland, CA – Fremont, CA 4.6% 27.3% 6.9%
2 Las Vegas, NV – Paradise, NV 4.2% 32.1% 25.7%
3 San Jose, CA – Sunnyvale, CA – Santa Clara, CA 4.1% 26.0% 3.4%
4 Chicago, IL – Naperville, IL – Joliet, IL 4.0% 20.3% 21.7%
5 Sacramento, CA – Arden, CA – Roseville, CA 3.9% 26.5% 11.7%
6 Atlanta, GA – Sandy Springs, GA – Marietta, GA 3.5% 24.9% 23.2%
7 Los Angeles, CA – Long Beach, CA – Santa Ana, CA 3.4% 21.4% 10.2%
8 Bakersfield, CA 3.1% 20.4% 16.7%
9 Miami, FL – Ft. Lauderdale, FL – Miami Beach, FL 3.1% 19.7% 21.5%
10 Riverside, CA – San Bernardino, CA – Ontario, CA 3.1% 20.4% 17.8%
11 San Diego, CA – Carlsbad, CA – San Marcos, CA 3.1% 19.3% 8.7%
12 Oxnard, CA – Thousand Oaks, CA – Ventura, CA 2.9% 17.5% 8.3%
13 Tampa, FL – St. Petersburg, FL – Clearwater, FL 2.7% 13.8% 22.4%
14 Orlando, FL 2.6% 17.3% 19.8%
15 Phoenix, AZ – Mesa, AZ – Scottsdale, AZ 2.5% 22.6% 11.6%

 

 

 Lowest Performing Major Metro Markets
Qtr/Qtr Rank Metropolitan Statistical Area Qtr/Qtr % +/- Yr/Yr REO Saturation
1 St. Louis, MO -0.3% -2.0% 23.6%
2 Raleigh, NC – Cary, NC 0.1% 0.2% 10.6%
3 Hartford, CT – West Hartford, CT – East Hartford, CT 0.2% 2.8% 4.2%
4 Louisville, KY 0.3% 1.1% 20.0%
5 Rochester, NY 0.3% 2.1% 2.0%
6 Cleveland, OH – Elyria, OH – Mentor, OH 0.5% -0.9% 34.9%
7 New Orleans, LA – Metairie, LA – Kenner, LA 0.5% 4.2% 12.0%
8 Dayton, OH 0.7% 5.0% 24.5%
9 Virginia Beach, VA – Norfolk, VA – Newport News, VA 0.7% 5.0% 10.9%
10 Pittsburgh, PA 0.8% 5.0% 4.6%
11 Columbus, OH 1.1% 5.8% 23.8%
12 Birmingham, AL – Hoover, AL 1.2% 6.7% 20.9%
13 Philadelphia, PA – Camden, NJ – Wilmington, DE 1.2% 4.4% 5.4%
14 Baltimore, MD – Towson, MD 1.3% 6.0% 7.3%
15 Dallas, TX – Fort Worth, TX – Arlington, TX 1.3% 8.3% 12.9%

 

 

About the Clear Capital Home Data Index (HDI) Market Report

 

The Clear Capital HDI Market Report provides insights into market trends and other leading indices for the real estate market at the national and local levels. A critical difference in the value of the HDI Market Report is the capability of Clear Capital to provide more timely and granular reporting than nearly any other home price index provider.

 

The Clear Capital HDI Market Report

 

  • Offers the real estate industry (investors, lenders, and servicers), government agencies, and the public insight into the most recent pricing conditions, not only at the national and metropolitan level, but within local markets as well.
  • Is built on the most recent information available from recorder/assessor offices, and then further enhanced by adding the company’s proprietary streaming market data for the most comprehensive geographic coverage and local insights available.
  • Reflects nationwide coverage of sales transactions and aggregates this comprehensive dataset at ten different geographic levels, including hundreds of metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) and sub-ZIP code boundaries.
  • Includes equally-weighted distressed bank owned sales (REOs) from around the country to give the most real world look of pricing dynamics across all sales types..
  • Allows for the most current market data by providing more frequent updates with patent pending rolling quarter technology. This ensures decisions are based on the most up-to-date information available.

 

Clear Capital HDI Methodology

 

  • Generates the timeliest indices in patent pending rolling quarter intervals that compare the most recent four months to the previous three months. The rolling quarters have no fixed start date and can be used to generate indices as data flows in, significantly reducing the multi-month lag time experienced with other indices.
  • Includes both fair market and institutional (real estate owned) transactions, giving equal weight to all market transactions and identifying price tiers at a market specific level. By giving equal weight to all transactions, the HDI is truly representative of each unique market.
  • Results from an address-level cascade create an index with the most granular, statistically significant market area available.
  • Provides weighted repeat sales and price-per-square-foot index models that use multiple sale types, including single-family homes, multi-family homes, and condominiums.

 

About Clear Capital

 

Clear Capital (www.ClearCapital.com) is the premium provider of data and solutions for the mortgage finance industry. The Company’s products include appraisals, broker price opinions, property condition inspections, value reconciliations, automated valuation models, quality assurance services, and home data indices. Clear Capital’s combination of progressive technology, high caliber in-house staff, and a well-trained network of more than 40,000 field experts sets a new standard for accurate, up-to-date, and well documented valuation data and assessments. The Company’s customers include the largest U.S. banks, investment firms, and other financial organizations. Clear Capital’s home price data can be accessed on the Bloomberg Professional service by typing CLCA.

 

The information contained in this report is based on sources that are deemed to be reliable; however no representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness, or fitness for any particular purpose of any information contained herein. This report is not intended as investment advice, and should not be viewed as any guarantee of value, condition, or other attribute.

 

 

Brian Opsal

Vice President, Marketing

brian.opsal@clearcapital.com

Phone: 530.550.2546