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April’s Stable Home Prices Reflect The New Normal.
Long-term momentum likely to moderate as price floor rises.
TRUCKEE, Calif. – May 7, 2013 – Clear Capital (www.ClearCapital.com), the premium provider of data and solutions for real estate asset valuation and collateral risk assessment, today released its Home Data Index™ (HDI) Market Report with data through April 2013. Using a broad array of public and proprietary data sources, the HDI Market Report publishes the most granular home data and analysis earlier than nearly any other index provider in the industry.
April 2013 highlights include:
- National yearly gains notched up to 7.2%, a stark contrast to the -1.40% declines a year ago.
- Quarterly prices for nation and region continue to stabilize at close of April 2013, a good position for the start of the spring buying season. In fact, quarterly rates of growth around 1% demonstrate the market is on track to hit annual forecasted gains. 4% national growth is in line with average historical rates of growth.
- Regionally, markets continue to correct at a rate commensurate with their stages in the housing recovery.
- Las Vegas saw impressive trends in April, with yearly growth accelerating to 24.3%, second to only Phoenix. Las Vegas is representative of a First In, First Out (FIFO) recovering market.
- Phoenix, another FIFO market, saw a slight pull back in yearly gains to 25.8%, a signal to the start of more normal rates of growth.
- Lowest performing markets, Birmingham, Detroit and Cleveland, struggle with low price points and short-term trend volatility. Their median price-per-square-foot (PPSF) is under $70, $40 lower than the national median PPSF average.
- Contact Brian Opsal for your April 2013 file of the Top 30 MSAs or access our data on the Bloomberg Professional service by typing CLCA.
“National yearly gains in April continued to ramp up to 7.2%,“ said Dr. Alex Villacorta, director of research and analytics at Clear Capital. “But market observers shouldn’t be fooled by the large headline numbers. Last year was a turning point for the market where the year started with prices at virtually their lowest point and saw a very strong correction through the year. Now, however, the market is stabilizing and the large yearly and even quarterly gains of 2012 are starting to subside, which is a good thing as markets return to more normal rates of growth. Much of the gains we see right now in the yearly trends are a reflection of the market lows in 2012, rather than a function of recent short-term momentum.
Having said that, we are still confident in the sustainability of the recovery as the market continues to adjust to the new normal. Moderate improvements in the broader economic landscape likely haven’t offered potential homebuyers strong reason to jump back in at the start of the season. We do expect to see more buyers and sellers ready to take action over the next several months as rising prices continue to free up some underwater mortgages. And while the national market waits for a spring boost in short-term gains, markets like Las Vegas offer a reminder that pockets of the housing market will continue to vastly outperform national and regional markets.”
For the complete file of the Top 30 MSA price trends for April 2013, please contact Brian Opsal.
|Highest Performing Major Metro Markets|
|Metropolitan Statistical Area||Qtr/Qtr
|1||Las Vegas, NV – Paradise, NV||4.2%||24.3%||27.7%|
|2||Sacramento, CA – Arden, CA – Roseville, CA||3.7%||20.3%||20.0%|
|3||Phoenix, AZ – Mesa, AZ – Scottsdale, AZ||3.1%||25.8%||16.2%|
|4||Atlanta, GA – Sandy Springs, GA – Marietta, GA||3.1%||19.2%||33.1%|
|5||San Jose, CA – Sunnyvale, CA – Santa Clara, CA||2.9%||22.5%||8.7%|
|6||Chicago, IL – Naperville, IL – Joliet, IL||2.9%||9.4%||32.5%|
|7||San Francisco, CA – Oakland, CA – Fremont, CA||2.7%||20.2%||15.7%|
|8||Miami, FL – Ft. Lauderdale, FL – Miami Beach, FL||2.6%||16.9%||24.6%|
|9||Riverside, CA – San Bernardino, CA – Ontario, CA||2.5%||14.7%||24.2%|
|10||Los Angeles, CA – Long Beach, CA – Santa Ana, CA||2.5%||14.9%||16.4%|
|11||San Diego, CA – Carlsbad, CA – San Marcos, CA||2.5%||14.3%||16.0%|
|13||Oxnard, CA – Thousand Oaks, CA – Ventura, CA||2.4%||11.7%||16.1%|
|14||Seattle, WA – Tacoma, WA – Bellevue, WA||2.3%||19.4%||13.4%|
The Lowest Performing 15 MSAs
On average, the lowest performing MSAs were nearly unchanged over both the previous rolling quarter and year, with losses of just 0.9% and 0.1%, respectively. In fact, nine out of the lowest 15 metros saw price changes of less than 1.0% over the last quarter. Stability in the lowest performing metros offers encouragement that even markets lagging in recovery are starting to find a bottom, creating a stronger foundation for the progression of the recovery at the national level.
|Lowest Performing Major Metro Markets|
|Metropolitan Statistical Area||Qtr/Qtr
|1||Birmingham, AL – Hoover, AL||-3.0%||5.3%||27.0%|
|2||Detroit, MI – Warren, MI – Livonia, MI||-2.5%||6.7%||48.6%|
|3||Cleveland, OH – Elyria, OH – Mentor, OH||-2.1%||-2.1%||39.5%|
|4||Milwaukee, WI – Waukesha, WI – West Allis, WI||-1.5%||5.7%||20.5%|
|5||Charlotte, NC – Gastonia, NC – Concord, NC||-0.5%||-3.4%||28.8%|
|6||Nashville, TN – Davidson, TN – Murfreesboro, TN||-0.5%||2.1%||21.3%|
|7||St. Louis, MO||-0.3%||-1.0%||33.0%|
|8||Raleigh, NC – Cary, NC||0.0%||3.5%||15.9%|
|9||Cincinnati, OH – Middletown, OH||0.2%||2.2%||26.7%|
|11||Dallas, TX – Fort Worth, TX – Arlington, TX||0.3%||1.9%||22.2%|
|13||New Orleans, LA – Metairie, LA – Kenner, LA||0.3%||2.9%||17.2%|
|14||Philadelphia, PA – Camden, NJ – Wilmington, DE||0.3%||0.6%||8.5%|
|15||Hartford, CT – West Hartford, CT – East Hartford, CT||0.4%||1.6%||7.9%|
About the Clear Capital Home Data Index (HDI) Market Report
The Clear Capital HDI Market Report provides insights into market trends and other leading indices for the real estate market at the national and local levels. A critical difference in the value of the HDI Market Report is the capability of Clear Capital to provide more timely and granular reporting than nearly any other home price index providers.
The Clear Capital HDI Market Report
- Offers the real estate industry (investors, lenders, and servicers), government agencies, and the public insight into the most recent pricing conditions, not only at the national and metropolitan level, but within local markets as well.
- Is built on the most recent information available from recorder/assessor offices, and then further enhanced by adding the company’s proprietary streaming market data for the most comprehensive geographic coverage and local insights available.
- Reflects nationwide coverage of sales transactions and aggregates this comprehensive dataset at ten different geographic levels, including hundreds of metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) and sub-ZIP code boundaries.
- Includes equally-weighted distressed bank owned sales (REOs) from around the country to give the most real world look of pricing dynamics across all sales types..
- Allows for the most current market data by providing more frequent updates with patent pending rolling quarter technology. This ensures decisions are based on the most up-to-date information available.
Clear Capital HDI Methodology
- Generates the timeliest indices in patent pending rolling quarter intervals that compare the most recent four months to the previous three months. The rolling quarters have no fixed start date and can be used to generate indices as data flows in, significantly reducing the multi-month lag time experienced with other indices.
- Includes both fair market and institutional (real estate owned) transactions, giving equal weight to all market transactions and identifying price tiers at a market specific level. By giving equal weight to all transactions, the HDI is truly representative of each unique market.
- Results from an address-level cascade create an index with the most granular, statistically significant market area available.
- Provides weighted repeat sales and price-per-square-foot index models that use multiple sale types, including single-family homes, multi-family homes, and condominiums.
About Clear Capital
Clear Capital (www.ClearCapital.com) is the premium provider of data and solutions for the mortgage finance industry. The Company’s products include appraisals, broker price opinions, property condition inspections, value reconciliations, automated valuation models, quality assurance services, and home data indices. Clear Capital’s combination of progressive technology, high caliber in-house staff, and a well-trained network of more than 40,000 field experts sets a new standard for accurate, up-to-date, and well documented valuation data and assessments. The Company’s customers include the largest U.S. banks, investment firms, and other financial organizations. Clear Capital’s home price data can be accessed on the Bloomberg Professional service by typing CLCA.
The information contained in this report is based on sources that are deemed to be reliable; however no representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness, or fitness for any particular purpose of any information contained herein. This report is not intended as investment advice, and should not be viewed as any guarantee of value, condition, or other attribute.
Vice President, Marketing