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HDI Market Report & Forecast

The Baby Boomer Effect: Florida’s Recent Housing Market Success

By June 6, 2017 No Comments

Clear Capital’s® Home Data Index (HDI) Market Report releases recent and granular data each month. The HDI Market Report provides insights into housing price trends and other leading indices for the real estate market at the national and local levels.

Florida’s markets continue to recover from the devastating lows of the housing market crash, with an increase in baby boomers in the region providing key insight into the market’s future.

  • Regionally, the West continues to dominate quarterly growth as it hovers around a 1.1% quarter-over-quarter price increase, a downtick of 0.1% from last month. Growth rates in the South remain unchanged at 0.7% QoQ growth, while Northeast and Midwest regional growth continues to lag far behind the rest of the nation at 0.1% QoQ growth each, a virtual standstill in terms of price growth. Nationally, quarterly market performance remains fixed at 0.6% with no change from last month.
  • The Seattle and Tampa MSAs are tied for the top spot on our Highest Performing Major Metro Markets for June, each reporting an impressive QoQ price increase of 2.0%. Tampa is not the only MSA from the Sunshine State to have made the list, as three other Florida markets are also reporting impressive quarterly gains. Quarterly price growth in Orlando is up 0.2% since last month to 1.7%, while Jacksonville QoQ price growth is currently at 1.7%, a gain of 0.3% since last month. Miami is also reporting 1.4% quarterly price growth.
  • The most recent quarterly growth figures for these Floridian markets fit into a longer term pattern of growth and recovery for the state. Each of these major MSAs has experienced incredible gains since the market lows of 2011, recovering at least 30% or more of the individual market value. Jacksonville and Orlando home prices have increased 33% and 44% respectively, while Tampa and Miami home prices have skyrocketed by almost 56% and 57% over the time period respectively.


Florida has traditionally been regarded as prime real estate by those retirees who may be looking to migrate from colder areas of the nation such as the Northeast to a warmer and sunnier alternative for their golden years. As the top Floridian housing markets continue to grow and return impressive price gains – Tampa is currently reporting 12.2% annual price growth – it’s no surprise that this generation continues to invest in real estate in the region. The baby boomer share of homeowners is clearly on the rise here, and as more and more of this generation nears retirement age, Florida markets may be in for a boost in performance if tradition continues and retirees demand homes in the region,” states Alex Villacorta, Ph.D., vice president of research and analytics at Clear Capital.

Graph 1. Price gains and baby boomer homeownership throughout Florida markets since the market lows in 2011. Source: Clear Capital® and U.S. Census Bureau.



 National and Regional Markets
Market Qtr/Qtr% +/- Yr/Yr Distressed
National 0.6% 4.6% 14.8%
West 1.1% 7.7% 10.2%
Northeast 0.1% 1.3% 13.7%
South 0.7% 5.3% 17.4%
Midwest 0.1% 3.2% 17.2%

Chart 1. National and Regional distressed saturation and changes in home prices from last quarter and last year. Data through May 2016. Source: Clear Capital®


 Highest Performing Major Metro Markets
Rank Metropolitan Statistical Area Qtr/Qtr% +/- Yr/Yr Distressed
1 Seattle, WA — Tacoma, WA — Bellevue, WA 2.0% 12.4% 10.1%
2 Tampa, FL — St. Petersburg, FL — Clearwater, FL 2.0% 12.2% 22.2%
3 Denver, CO — Aurora, CO 1.5% 11.2% 6.5%
4 Orlando, FL 1.7% 10.4% 22.9%
5 Portland, OR — Vancouver, WA — Beaverton, OR 1.2% 10.0% 9.8%
6 Miami, FL — Ft. Lauderdale, FL — Miami Beach, FL 1.4% 10.0% 20.3%
7 San Jose, CA — Sunnyvale, CA — Santa Clara, CA 1.4% 9.8% 3.7%
8 Las Vegas, NV — Paradise, NV 1.7% 9.6% 18.4%
9 Providence, RI — New Bedford, MA — Fall River, MA 0.3% 9.6% 14.7%
10 Dallas, TX — Fort Worth, TX — Arlington, TX 1.3% 9.5% 2.5%
11 Jacksonville, FL 1.6% 9.5% 25.0%
12 Nashville, TN — Davidson, TN — Murfreesboro, TN 1.5% 9.1% 9.1%
13 Sacramento, CA — Arden, CA — Roseville, CA 1.2% 9.0% 12.0%
14 Phoenix, AZ — Mesa, AZ — Scottsdale, AZ 1.4% 8.6% 10.3%
15 San Francisco, CA — Oakland, CA — Fremont, CA 1.2% 8.1% 6.4%

Chart 2. Highest Performing Major Metro Markets through May 2016. Source: Clear Capital®


 Lowest Performing Major Metro Markets
Rank Metropolitan Statistical Area Qtr/Qtr% +/- Yr/Yr Distressed
1 Memphis, TN -0.4% -1.7% 23.9%
2 Rochester, NY -0.5% -1.4% 15.4%
3 Birmingham, AL — Hoover, AL -0.1% 0.0% 16.0%
4 Milwaukee, WI — Waukesha, WI — West Allis, WI -0.6% 0.8% 19.2%
5 Philadelphia, PA — Camden, NJ — Wilmington, DE 0.1% 1.5% 19.5%
6 Dayton, OH -0.6% 1.8% 20.3%
7 Pittsburgh, PA 0.0% 2.1% 12.2%
8 Virginia Beach, VA — Norfolk, VA — Newport News, VA 0.3% 2.3% 19.2%
9 Baltimore, MD — Towson, MD 0.5% 2.6% 28.7%
10 Washington, DC — Arlington, VA — Alexandria, VA 0.5% 2.7% 17.0%
11 Richmond, VA 0.4% 3.3% 15.0%
12 Louisville, KY 0.3% 3.3% 12.9%
13 NY, NY — No. New Jersey, NJ — Long Island, NY 0.5% 3.4% 14.6%
14 St. Louis, MO 0.5% 4.2% 20.2%

Chart 3. Lowest Performing Major Metro Markets through May 2016. Source: Clear Capital®


 About the Clear Capital® Home Data Index (HDI) Market Report

The Clear Capital HDI Market Report provides insights into market trends and other leading indices for the real estate market at the national and local levels. A critical difference in the value of the HDI Market Report is the capability of Clear Capital to provide more timely and granular reporting than nearly any other home price index provider.

  • Offers the real estate industry (investors, lenders, and servicers), government agencies, and the public insight into the most recent pricing conditions, not only at the national and metropolitan level, but within local markets as well.
  • Is built on the most recent information available from recorder/assessor offices, and then further enhanced by adding the company’s proprietary streaming market data for the most comprehensive geographic coverage and local insights available.
  • Reflects nationwide coverage of sales transactions and aggregates this comprehensive dataset at ten different geographic levels, including hundreds of metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) and sub-ZIP code boundaries.
  • Includes equally-weighted distressed bank owned sales (REOs) from around the country to give the most real world look of pricing dynamics across all sales types.
  • Allows for the most current market data by providing more frequent updates with patent pending rolling quarter technology. This ensures decisions are based on the most up-to-date information available.

Clear Capital® HDI Methodology

  • Generates the timeliest indices in patent pending rolling quarter intervals that compare the most recent four months to the previous three months. The rolling quarters have no fixed start date and can be used to generate indices as data flows in, significantly reducing the multi-month lag time experienced with other indices.
  • Includes both fair market and institutional (real estate owned) transactions, giving equal weight to all market transactions and identifying price tiers at a market specific level. By giving equal weight to all transactions, the HDI is truly representative of each unique market.
  • Results from an address-level cascade create an index with the most granular, statistically significant market area available.
  • Provides weighted repeat sales and price-per-square-foot index models that use multiple sale types, including single-family homes, multi-family homes, and condominiums.
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